Anand Rathi Starts Aditya Birla Real Estate at Buy with Rs 1,345 Target

What Anand Rathi said

Anand Rathi Research initiated coverage of Aditya Birla Real Estate Limited with a BUY rating and a target price of Rs 1,345 per share, which the broker says implies 34% upside. The report, dated 2 November 2026, describes the company as moving from a Worli-led developer to a diversified and more capital-efficient real estate platform.

The rating applies to the listed parent company. It is not a project-level transaction or a launch announcement.

Valuation and forecasts

The target rests on a net asset value of Rs 150.2 billion, made up of Rs 113.5 billion from residential projects and Rs 39.5 billion from commercial assets, less Rs 2.8 billion of net debt, according to a summary of the report.

The 34% upside figure implies a reference price of about Rs 1,004 per share. This reference is derived from the upside calculation and is not a quoted market price.

Anand Rathi forecasts pre-sales of Rs 41.7 billion in FY27E, a 49% year-on-year decline from Rs 81.4 billion in FY26. It expects recovery to Rs 70.8 billion in FY28E and Rs 98.2 billion in FY29E. The broker names three monitorables: business development conversion, launch execution and the pace of the pre-sales recovery.

Why FY27 pre-sales are expected to fall

The broker cites two main drivers: a slowdown in business development additions and the deferral of the Niyaara Tower C launch to FY28. Business development additions were about Rs 6,000 crore year to date, and the company has a further opportunity pipeline of about Rs 60,000 crore, per the broker's estimates. The broker expects pre-sales to regain momentum as launches resume from FY28.

Management has said that FY27 pre-sales will not reach Rs 8,000 crore following the Tower C deferral. Unnamed analysts who took part in the Q2 call put FY27 pre-sales at Rs 6,000 crore to Rs 7,000 crore, against Rs 8,000 crore expected earlier.

The Niyaara Tower C deferral

On the Q2 FY27 call on 26 October 2026, Birla Estates said the Tower C redesign raises net gross development value (GDV) for the overall Worli land parcel by Rs 1,900 crore. The company combined the original Niyaara plot with a second plot acquired later from the Wadias and used floor space index (FSI) from the adjacent plot in Tower C. Management said no additional consideration was paid specifically for loading that FSI into Tower C.

Anand Rathi calls the deferral value-accretive. It says the redesign and amalgamation of adjoining land parcels adds about Rs 1,900 crore, or roughly Rs 19 billion, to the overall Worli GDV.

Management has said the Tower C mix will include larger homes on some higher floors and more single flats on lower floors. The company has not announced a launch month, pricing, apartment count or final configuration for Tower C.

What it changes for home buyers

Tower C will not be sold in FY27 as previously planned. Management said 78% of the company's overall inventory has already been sold, leaving 22% available. With limited Niyaara inventory remaining, buyers looking at the project should expect fewer new homes in FY27 than earlier expected.

Management has said the Tower C launch slips to the next financial year. Buyers should check the latest project disclosures and approvals before making decisions based on launch timing.

What it changes for investors

The main near-term risk named in reports is that pre-sales will stay weak until the Rs 60,000 crore opportunity pipeline converts into sales. Operating numbers for the quarter showed a mixed picture. Booking value was Rs 298 crore, down 67% year on year, while collections rose 47% to Rs 752 crore.

Reported consolidated net profit for Q2 FY27 was Rs 918.70 crore. That figure includes an exceptional gain of Rs 868.12 crore from the sale of the pulp and paper business to ITC, which was completed for Rs 3,476 crore. Consolidated total income is reported at about Rs 861 crore including discontinued operations, while Rs 268 crore is the figure for total income cited in the quarter's results summaries, so the basis of each figure should be checked against the filing.

Balance sheet figures reported for September 2026 show net debt of Rs 284 crore, down from Rs 4,226 crore a year earlier. CARE Ratings has upgraded the company to AA with a positive outlook.

What comes next

Management has given the following timelines, as of 4 November 2026:

• Khar, Mumbai: launch expected January to February 2027.
• Niyaara Tower C, Worli: launch targeted for Q2 FY28 (July to September 2027).
• Vashi, Navi Mumbai: launch in FY28.
• Taranya and Punya: new phases planned for FY28.
• Hinjewadi, Pune: launch targeted for Q4 FY28.
• Niyaara Towers A and B: revenue recognition expected after the RERA date of March 2028, as stated by management.

Management declined to give formal short-term guidance for FY27. Its FY29 pre-sales target of Rs 15,000 crore sits above Anand Rathi's FY29 forecast of Rs 98.2 billion.

Recent related announcements

On 23 October 2026 Birla Estates announced a joint development agreement for a 5.62-acre parcel in Hinjewadi, Pune. The project carries about 1.25 million square feet of saleable area and revenue potential of about Rs 1,650 crore. The partner receives 25% of revenue and Birla Estates receives 75%, with an upfront payment of about Rs 50 crore.

The company also reported that it added about Rs 6,200 crore of business development value in the first six months of FY27 and remains confident of exceeding its Rs 10,000 crore guideline for the year.