HSBC lifts DLF target to ₹950 after Q2 presales rebound on luxury demand

What happened

HSBC raised its target price on DLF Limited to ₹950 from ₹920 and kept its Buy rating. Analyst tables dated 19 October 2026 show an implied upside of about 40.55% from the stock's recent trading level. The change follows the company's second-quarter results, declared on 16 October 2026, which showed a sharp recovery in bookings from the first quarter.

DLF reported presales of ₹3,800 crore for July to September 2026. That was 12% lower than a year earlier, but well above the ₹657 crore booked in the April to June quarter. Nomura had modelled presales of about ₹2,500 crore for the quarter, so the reported figure came in above that estimate.

Where the presales came from

Most of the quarter's bookings came from two uber-luxury projects in Gurugram, DLF's core market.

• The Aureva, a senior living project in Gurugram, sold out. JP Morgan sized its sales at about ₹1,900 crore. CLSA said the Aureva launch and sell-out accounted for about half of presales.
• The Dahlias, an uber-luxury project in Gurugram, continued to sell in the quarter. JP Morgan put its sales, together with those at The Camellias, at about ₹1,900 crore. Elara said sustenance sales at The Dahlias made up 45% of presales. Realisations at The Dahlias are above ₹1 lakh per sq ft, and prices rose about 10% during the quarter.

Because a single senior living launch accounts for a large share of the total, the quarter's recovery depends on a small number of projects rather than broad-based sales across the portfolio.

Financial results

Revenue for the quarter was ₹1,261 crore, down 23% from a year earlier. EBITDA was ₹23 crore, compared with ₹284 crore a year earlier. Elara reported collections of ₹27.8 billion (about ₹2,780 crore), up 16% from the previous quarter and 4% from a year earlier. Core residential operating cash flow was ₹1,440 crore, up 30% year on year and 76% quarter on quarter.

Elara put net cash at about ₹15,000 crore after a dividend outflow of about ₹1,980 crore. Elara also noted that DCCDL's exit rental for FY27 is expected at about ₹6,800 crore, and that management expects the rental portfolio build-out to proceed on schedule over CY27 to FY30.

Other brokerage targets

The HSBC target is one of several published after the results. Jefferies has a Buy rating and a target of ₹830. CLSA has Outperform with ₹810. JP Morgan has Overweight with ₹800. Elara has Buy with ₹900, and Nomura has kept its target at ₹740 as of 19 October 2026. Business Upturn reported these targets against the ₹675 closing price on 16 October 2026.

Elara had cut its DLF target from ₹1,050 to ₹900 in June 2026 while keeping a Buy rating. HSBC had raised its target to ₹1,050 in January 2025, citing cash flows from The Dahlias. The current ₹950 target sits below that earlier level.

Valuation and market position

DLF describes itself as one of India's largest listed real estate companies, and market capitalisation was about ₹1.7 trillion as of 19 October 2026. Business Standard noted that at about ₹670, the stock traded at 21 times FY28 sales. Elara said the stock, at ₹675, traded at about a 30% discount to its March 2027 net asset value estimate.

The company also has a medium-term launch pipeline of about ₹58,200 crore. Two upcoming launches are estimated by JM Financial at a gross development value of ₹10,000 crore to ₹12,000 crore.

What it means for buyers, investors and the market

For buyers: The reports do not describe any change in pricing for buyers outside the projects named above. The price data that is reported covers luxury projects in Gurugram, where realisations at The Dahlias are above ₹1 lakh per sq ft.

For investors: The rating changes and targets point to a more positive view of DLF's near-term sales after a weak first quarter. JM Financial said that reaching the FY27 presales guidance of ₹20,000 crore would be a tall ask, given that H1 presales were about ₹4,460 crore. Business Standard said the result depends on timely launches in Mumbai and Gurugram in the second half of the year.

For the market: Nuvama Research has noted that the Gurugram housing market is facing a slowdown with falling volumes, but that DLF's brand should help it through the downturn. The Q2 numbers show that luxury demand has held up in Gurugram even as the broader market has softened.

What comes next

DLF's next launches are Westpark P-2 in Mumbai and an expansion of Magnolias P-2 in Gurugram. The company's FY27 presales guidance of ₹20,000 crore depends on those launches and the second-half sales that follow. The Mumbai project's maiden launch sold out within days, according to a Business Standard preview from October 2025.